blizzard. Oates said, "I am just going outside and I may He went into the blizzard, and we have not be some time." seen him since. No more 66 'Here Oates felt death upon him, and knowing he held his companions back, went from them to meet it. appropriate epitaph was ever written than abouts lies a very gallant gentleman," marked upon a post near where Oates walked to his death amid the Antarctic snows. On March 21st, 1912, Capt. Scott, Dr. Wilson and Lieut. Bowers were forced, on account of a blizzard, to camp in latitude 79° 40′ S., eleven miles from a depot where there was at least a ton of stores. They had food for two days and fuel for one hot meal. The blizzard prevented them from leaving their tent, and when they had been imprisoned for four days, Capt. Scott wrote his last message and his final appeal on behalf of those who are left behind. He wrote: We took risks-we know we took them. Things have come out against us, and therefore we have no cause for complaint, but bow to the will of Providence, determined still to do our best to the last. The message signed, Capt. Scott placed it with his diary between his head and the tent-pole, and, leaning against the pole, met the end. The remains of Capt. Scott and his two companions were not found until the following November, when the heroes were reverently laid to rest. But though they have entered into their long sleep, from the solitude of the polar waste of snow and ice where they lie their spirits have risen triumphant to testify to the world the greatness of human endeavour and the glory of self-sacrifice for the purpose of increasing knowledge. CHAPTER V BELIEF AND EVIDENCE We see only what we know. Goethe. Science is, I believe, nothing but trained and organised common sense. Huxley. Let us first understand the facts, and then we may seek the The work of science is to substitute facts for appearances, And learns from facts compar'd the laws to trace I hope that my children, at least, if not I myself, will see the THERE is a common impression that the conclusions arrived at by men of science are of the nature of beliefs, and have, therefore, no firmer basis than that of conviction. Nothing could be farther from the truth. From his earliest days the student of science is trained to ask for evidence before arriving at a judgment; and he should hesitate to pass an opinion upon a subject with which he is not familiar. Any beliefs he may hold as to natural phenomena belong to quite a different category from that of knowledge gained by the critical examination of observed facts. No subject is too trivial for inquiry, and no relationship must be regarded as impossible from a priori considerations, but the scientific mill must have material to work upon before the value of the product can be estimated. It is permissible to doubt whether the grain is worth grinding, but not to deny it a trial; for without a test any belief may be held as to its quality. Whether you doubt or believe is of no consequence whatever in scientific things if you cannot give reason for the position you occupy. There must be facts and there must be thought about them before any statement of substantial value can be made as to natural objects and phenomena. Popular impressions and beliefs relating to weather are often based upon casual observations, and have little foundation in fact. Yet every belief of this kind is worthy of examination, and if it has not been investigated no man of science is justified in asserting that it is untrue. But when such an inquiry has been made, and the evidence has failed to support popular opinion, we cannot do other than state that the case has not been proved. Two such examples may here be given; one as to alleged change of climate and the other as to a connection between the moon and the weather. Many people believe that the British climate has undergone considerable changes in comparatively modern times. "The winters (or the summers) are not what they were when I was young," is a statement frequently made; but when meteorological records are examined, they show that the temperature, rain, snow, frost and like atmospheric phenomena are much the same at the present time as they were in the early days of the declining generation. Going back so far as trustworthy observations with meteorological instruments exist, no evidence can be found to justify the common belief that the climate of England has changed. When there were few instruments, or none, the tendency of writers or diarists of those days would be to pass ordinary weather conditions unnoticed, and to refer only to unusual experiences. The diaries of Evelyn and Pepys provide faithful chronicles of noteworthy aspects of the weather during the latter half of the seventeenth century; and a careful examination of them has been made with the view of discovering whether any marked differences exist between the seasons then and now. Consider the winter season, for example. The instances of snow recorded by Evelyn and Pepys are surprisingly few, being only mentioned in thirteen winters in the period covered by the diaries (1648-1703), and only three of these falls appear to have been exceptional. At least eleven very mild or wet winters occurred in Evelyn's lifetime, and prolonged or severe frosts—including that of 1683-4, when coaches plied to and fro on the Thames were experienced in about ten of the winters. The conclusion arrived at, after considering all the information available, is that cold winters were not more frequent, or mild winters less so, in the latter half of the seventeenth century than they have been in the last fifty years. Spring, summer and autumn have also preserved much the same general characteristics, with occasional noteworthy variations. An inquiry into the facts, therefore, affords no ground for the belief that the seasons of our time are sensibly different from those of our proximate forefathers. Belief in an old-fashioned Christmas weather, with snow six feet deep, and skating for weeks on end, is fostered by most writers and artists who describe and depict Christmas scenes. Snow is apparently as essential a part of every Christmas story or picture as the ghost or the haunted chamber, yet our own experience tells us that one is almost as rare as the other, and that the association of snow with that day is more a matter of imagination than of fact. If, however, we look further back, a reason may be found for colder weather at Christmas than that now usually experienced. On account of the change from the Julian to the Gregorian Calendar in 1752, Christmas now occurs thirteen days earlier than it did. Old Christmas Day, Jan. 7, marks the date upon which the festival was formerly celebrated; and there have been considerable falls of snow after Christmas which would have occurred at Christmas or before if the Julian Calendar had been still in use. Tradition, and general impressions of elderly people, are, indeed, of little value in deciding whether any permanent change of climate has taken place. The only trustworthy test is provided by records of rainfall, temperature or other meteorological observations made systematically with suitable instruments. Such records go back for 150 years or so, and when they are examined critically they are found to give no decided indication of any progressive change, either for the better or worse. From an examination of old records, and of the long series of observations made at Greenwich, Sir John Moore was able to show to the British Association in 1908 that no appreciable change has taken place in the climate of the British Isles during the past six centuries. It is of no use to place a popular belief in such a change by the side of such a conclusion arrived at as the result of open-minded and careful inquiry. The responsibility of proving |