823. TO SIR HORACE MANN.

Strawberry Hill, Oct. 20, 1762.

A NEW revolution has happened, which perhaps has not struck you as such, from what little has appeared in the papers. Mr. [George] Grenville, Secretary of State, and Lord Halifax, First Lord of the Admiralty, have changed places. "Well!" say you foreigners, "and do you call that a revolution? Sure, you English are not accustomed to great events, violent catastrophes, when you look on two ministers crossing over and figuring-in, as a revolution? Why, in Russia, a wife murders her husband, seizes the crown-’ Stay, my good Sir; we do not strangle the Ten Commandments every time there is to be an alteration in the state; but, have a little patience, and you will find these removes not quite so simple as you imagine. Mr. Grenville, besides holding the Seals, was something else, was not he? Have you never heard of "Manager in the House of Commons ?" or, what defines it better, had the management of the House of Commons. This, Lord Halifax, being in the Lords, cannot execute-if he could, Lord Bute would perform it himself. "Well," you cry, " and who is to do it?" I will tell you presently—let us despatch Mr. Grenville first. Three explanations are given the majority, of which number for once am I, say, he had qualms on the Peace, could not digest such good terms as have been offered to France. Another set, no friends of Mr. Grenville, suspect some underhand dealings with his brother and Mr. Pitt. This I, who have a very good opinion of Grenville, do not believe. At most, I will allow him to have been afraid of signing the treaty. The third opinion, held by some of Lord Bute's friends, at least, given out by them, though not by himself, who imputes only timidity to Mr. Grenville, whisper, that the latter wanted the real' power of the House of Commons, and did not notify this ambition, till he thought the nearness of the Parliament would oblige his demands to be accorded. I have many reasons for disbelieving this. In the first place, the service was forced upon him, not sought; in the next, considering what steps have been taken for sole power, he could not expect it. In the last, the designation of his successor proves this was not fact, as Lord Bute must still

1 Grenville proved a very ambitious man, and grew early though secretly an enemy

of Lord Bute, as appeared afterwards.-WALPOLE.

have thought Mr. Grenville a less formidable substitute than the person he has been obliged to embrace-in short, Mr. Fox is again Manager of the House of Commons, remaining Paymaster and waiving the Seals; that is, will defend the treaty, not sign it. This wants no comment.

I see your impatience again-what, is the treaty then made? No-shall I tell you more? I mean my private opinion; it will not be made. Not for want of inclination here, nor in the ambassador at Paris-but I do not believe we can get it. Does that horrid and treacherous carnage, cannonading they call it, look like much sincerity on the French side? But the Spaniards will not accede. Have not I always told you, I was persuaded that the crown of Portugal reannexed had more charms in the proud eye of Spain than the Havannah in the eye of their interest? Mr. Stanley is indeed going directly after the Duke of Bedford-for what I know not, I do not expect much from it.

This is the state of the day. If you ask what is to follow, I answer, confusion; and the end of the war removed to the Lord knows when. When the Administration totters in four months,when the first breach is made within the walls, not from without, is such a citadel impregnable? But if new armies, unexpected armies, join the enemy! nay, I do not tell you the Duke of Newcastle has joined Mr. Pitt; on the contrary, the world says the latter has haughtily rejected all overtures. But, pray, did not the Patriots and the Jacobites concur in every measure against my father, whatever were their different ends? That an opposition, much more formidable than is yet known, will appear, is very probable; and that Mr. Fox, so far from bringing any strength, except great abilities, to Lord Bute's support, will add fuel to the flame is, I think, past doubt. Unpopularity heaped on unpopularity does not silence clamour. Even the silly Tories will not like to fight under Mr. Fox's banner.

Upon the whole, I look on Lord Bute's history as drawing fast to a conclusion. So far from being ready to meet the Parliament, I shall not be surprised if they are not able to meet it, but throw up the cards before they begin to play them. My hopes of Peace are vanished! Few disinterested persons would be content with so moderate a one as I should; yet I can conceive a Peace with which I should not be satisfied. Yet if the time comes when you hear me again lamenting a glorious war, do not think me fickle and inconsistent. Had that happy stroke of a pen been struck last year,

when we might have had a reasonable Peace, we should not now be begging it, nor be uncertain whether we are not to be at last magnificently undone.

I believe I have made a great blunder. I told you the Duchess of Grafton said she had something for me from you, but would not deliver it till she saw me. You, I hooked into this, I do not know how. Lady Mary Coke arrived from Paris at the same time, and brought me a snuff-box, which she would not send, but give me herself. I had been inquiring about both, and interpreted of the Duchess what related to Lady Mary. So I have answered your surprise before I receive it.

My nephew, Mr. Keppel, is made Bishop of Exeter. How reverently ancient this makes me sound! my nephew the bishop! Would not one think I was four-score? Lady Albemarle; there is a happy mother! Honours military and ecclesiastic raining upon her children! She owns she has felt intoxicated. The moment the King had complimented the Duke of Cumberland on Lord Albemarle's success, the Duke stepped across the room to Lady Albemarle, and said, "If it was not in the Drawing-Room, I would kiss you." He' is full as transported as she is.

Princess Augusta is certainly to marry the young hero of Brunswick.2 In Portugal it goes wofully. Count la Lippe has been forced to cut the sash from the breast of a Portuguese general officer for cowardice. I suppose, however, that they will have honour enough left to stab him privately for it! Carvalho's situation is beyond description; when our generals go to confer with him, they find a guard at every door of every room in his house; bolts and bars are unlocked before they can arrive at him; he is forced to keep himself as he would secure the head of the Jesuits. I expect very soon to see the Portuguese royal family at Somerset-house. Adieu!

824. TO THE HON. H. S. CONWAY.

Strawberry Hill, Oct. 29, 1762.

You take my philosophy very kindly, as it was meant; but I suppose you smile a little in your sleeve to hear me turn moralist.

1 George Lord Albemarle, the conqueror of the Havannah, was the chief favourite of William Duke of Cumberland.-WALPOLE. "Upon the whole no joy can equal mine, and I strut and plume myself as if it was I that had taken the Havannah." Duke of Cumberland to Lord Albemarle, 2nd Oct. 1762.-CUNNINGHAM.

2 Charles, hereditary Prince, and afterwards Duke of Brunswick.—WALPOLE. 3 The famous Prime Minister of Portugal.-WALPOLE.

Yet why should not I? Must every absurd young man prove a foolish old one? Not that I intend, when the latter term is quite arrived, to profess preaching; nor should, I believe, have talked so gravely to you, if your situation had not made me grave. Till the campaign is ended, I shall be in no humour to smile. For the war, when it will be over, I have no idea. The Peace is a jack-o'lanthorn that dances before one's eyes, is never approached, and at best seems ready to lead some folks into a woful quagmire.

As your brother was in town, and I had my intelligence from him, I concluded you would have the same, and therefore did not tell you of this last revolution, which has brought Mr. Fox again upon the scene. I have been in town but once since; yet learned enough to confirm the opinion I had conceived, that the building totters, and that this last buttress will but push on its fall. Besides the clamorous opposition already encamped, the world talks of another, composed of names not so often found in a mutiny. What think you of the great Duke [Cumberland], and the little Duke [Bedford], and the old Duke [Newcastle], and the Derbyshire Duke [Devonshire], banded together against the favourite [Bute]? If so, it proves the court, as the late Lord G * * *I wrote to the mayor of Litchfield, will have a majority in everything but numbers. However, my letter is a week old before I write it: things may have changed since last Tuesday. Then the prospect was des plus gloomy. Portugal at the eve of being conquered-Spain preferring a diadem to the mural crown of the Havannah-a squadron taking horse for Naples, to see whether King Carlos has any more private bowels than public, whether he is a better father than brother. If what I heard yesterday be true, that the Parliament is to be put off till the 24th, it does not look as if they were ready in the green-room, and despised cat-calls.

You bid me send you the flower of brimstone, the best things published in this season of outrage. I should not have waited for orders, if I had met with the least tolerable morsel. But this opposition ran stark mad at once, cursed, swore, called names, and has not been one minute cool enough to have a grain of wit. Their prints are gross, their papers scurrilous; indeed the authors abuse one another more than anybody else. I have not seen a single ballad or epigram. They are as seriously dull as if the controversy was religious. I do not take in a paper of either side; and being very indifferent, the only way of being impartial, they shall not make me

1 Query Gower.-CUNNINGHAM.

pay till they make me laugh. I am here quite alone, and shall stay a fortnight longer, unless the Parliament prorogued lengthens my holidays. I do not pretend to be so indifferent, to have so little curiosity, as not to go and see the Duke of Newcastle frightened for his country-the only thing that never yet gave him a panic. Then I am still such a schoolboy, that though I could guess half their orations, and know all their meaning, I must go and hear Cæsar and Pompey scold in the Temple of Concord. As this age is to make such a figure hereafter, how the Gronoviuses and Warburtons would despise a senator that deserted the forum when the masters of the world harangued! For, as this age is to be historic, so of course it will be a standard of virtue too; and we, like our wicked predecessors the Romans, shall be quoted, till our very ghosts blush, as models of patriotism and magnanimity. What lectures will be read to poor children on this æra! Europe taught to tremble, the great King humbled, the treasures of Peru diverted into the Thames, Asia subdued by the gigantic Clive! for in that age men were near seven feet high; France suing for peace at the gates of Buckinghamhouse, the steady wisdom of the Duke of Bedford drawing a circle round the Gallic monarch, and forbidding him to pass it till he had signed the cession of America; Pitt more eloquent than Demosthenes, and trampling on proffered pensions like I don't know who; Lord Temple sacrificing a brother to the love of his country; Wilkes as spotless as Sallust, and the Flamen Churchill' knocking down the foes of Britain with statues of the Gods !-Oh! I am out of breath with eloquence and prophecy, and truth and lies: my narrow chest was not formed to hold inspiration! I must return to piddling with my Painters: those lofty subjects are too much for me. Good night!

P.S. I forgot to tell you that Gideon,' who is dead worth more than the whole land of Canaan, has left the reversion of all his milk and honey, after his son and daughter and their children, to the Duke of Devonshire, without insisting on his taking the name, or even being circumcised. Lord Albemarle is expected home in December. My nephew Keppel is Bishop of Exeter, not of the Havannah, as you may imagine, for his mitre was promised the day before the news came.

1 Charles Churchill the poet.-WALPOLE.

2 See vol. ii. p. 260 and p. 395.-CUNNINGHAM.

3 Frederick Keppel, youngest brother of George Earl of Albemarle, who commanded at taking the Havannah, had married Laura, eldest daughter of Sir Edward Walpole.-WALPOLE.