very greatly fo to exceed it; and the difference of the two rates must be expected to be conftantly increasing. In England, in about a century, that augmentation has become nearly 70l. per cent. on each.

Let us now examine the progreffive variations of the current and official values of commodities, as fhown in the two Tables, on these principles: and, firft, of thofe of the imports. Their average official value for four years, ending 1799, was 4,220,000l.; the current value, 5,890,000l.; and the difference or excefs of the latter 39'561. per cent. The next period of comparison is only of two years, 1800, 1801; for, in the Table of current values, we here come to a break: taking the averages of both, that of the official value was 5,884,000l.; of the current value, 7,963,000l.*; and the difference of the two, 35'341. per cent. Here we see a fall in the current prices of 30221.† per cent. taking place in about three years and a half. The official amount for the year ending Jan. 5, 1803, was 6,087,000; the current value, 7,654,000l.; and the difference 25741. per cent. only: and here had been a further fall of the average prices, in about two years and a quarter, of the great amount of 70931. per cent. and in the whole five years and three quarters, of 9'903l. per cent. It is a circumftance which muft excite fome aftonishment, that in a term of years, in which the imports and exports of Great Britain muft. be taken on the average to have rifen 3o9l. per cent. the imports of Ireland, purchafed either in the market of Great Britain, or others in which both countries deal, and therefore rifing and falling very nearly in current value at the fame rate in both, thould be actually found to have fallen in price 10l. per cent. It must be confidered, that if these imports had in price remained ftationary, they are undervalued at that rate; besides, the Table holds forth a great progreffive fall in their current values, contrary to what was laid down as probable.

*Years ending March 25.

+ Not of 4 221. for 139.56; 135'34; 100l. 96.9771. or fall as in

text.

It may be taken as certain, that in thefe five years and three quar ters, the values of the exports and imports of Britain increafed with a celerity equal to the average rate of the century ending 1797, or 70l. per cent. in the whole term; that is, 0.5321. per cent. yearly; and in five ears, 2.6881.; and in five years and three quarters, 3'0gl. per cen; and the imported commodities, that at the beginning of the period were bought for 139.561. at the end thereof were rifen in price to 143.88). and at the fame time in Ireland fallen to 125*741. according to the valuation here confidered.

But

But the difficulty of admitting the valuation of the imports abfolutely vanishes, when compared with that occurring from the valuation of the Irifh exports: their average official and current values for the firft term of four years were 4,651,000l. and 6,423,000l. refpectively; and the latter exceeded the former 38.081. per cent.; the excess current value of the imports at the fame period had amounted to 39.561. fub-equal to the former; fhowing the rife of value on each, from the inftitution of the ledger of the Irish inspector to the middle of the term, a period of many years; and proving, that the increase of prices in each had a strong and established tendency to equality. The averages of the two values for the next two years were 3,949,000l. and 5,581,000l.; and the excess of the latter 41.33l. per cent. have rifen in three years and a half 2.0351. per cent.; but, in the year 1803, the official value of the exports having been 5,090,300l. and their current va lue 8,571,400, if they confifted nearly of the fame commodities, and mixed nearly in the fame proportions, the excefs of their current prices above the official values was 93.331. per cent. and in that period they had rifen 36-781. per To us the valuation of the exports of the year 1803 appears totally inadmiffible*, and to contain a great latent error; and, as the pofition, that the general balance of payment is in favour of Ireland, is refted by Mr. Fofter on the valuation of the exports and imports of this year fole!y, it is an error of the first public confequence.

cent.

There is, in the first of the two Tables here confidered, that of the official values and their balances, an overfight of great magnitude; and, if we fuppofe that a fecond of the fame kind has been committed, in giving the current values of 1805, we fhall, by a due correction, get rid of the groffer part of these inconfifiencies; for, in the firft, we find the average excefs of imports at the official values, for the laft period of five years, 1,195,000l. which is the laft article of that balance fet in the place, and declared to be the annual average of the excess of exports of the first period, the true amount of which was 1,071,000l.; and vice verfa, the favourable balance of the firft period is put in the place of the adverfe balance of the laft

* This conclufion will appear in fomewhat a ftronger manner thus. It appears from the two Tables, that from March, 1797, to July, 1803, the current value of the Irish imports had decreated in the ratió of 1395 to 1257, while that of the exports had increased in that of 1380 to 1933; and thus the balance contended to have been in her fayour in 1803 was generated.

This leads us to fuppofe, that the official value of the imports of 1803 having been 6,087,2531. the current value was the greater fum 8,571,4121.; and the former value of the exports having been 5,090,3951. their current value was 7,654,1331. or the lefs of the two amounts; or that a transpofition, like that of the former Table, has been made in the latter; the current value of the exports of the year being entered as the column of imports, and that of the imports given vice verfa as exports: thus the balance of the year, 917,299l. ftated in favour of Ireland will be against her. This tranfpofition renders the relation of those values much more confiftent with that of former periods in the fame Tables; but points out an advance of the prices of imports and exports, which we may, but not without fome hefitation, admit to have taken place in fo fhort a term as five years and three quarters*.

The greater part of this tract rells on the fuppofition, that the commercial balance of Ireland is nearly determined therein. In the examination which we have entered into relating to it, all the elements have been computed; which will enable us to approximate to the amount of this important total, for three fucceflive periods, of five years each, with the aid of the Table of official values of imports and exports; and, by affigning this, the foundation of all the confequences Mr. Fofter has drawn from the exiflence of a favourable balance will be apparently deftroyed.

TABLE of the average official and current Values of the Exports and Imports of Ireland, and the Balances of the latter, for Three Periods of Five Years each, beginning with 1790 and ending with 1804.

O.V.X+15594C.V. 5·3120.V.X†1·3450—C.V.6·696(+)1·384]

II.

Decrm. Expts. in Periods.

2nd 0.803

Sd

1.932

1795-99 O.V. 4-205 2nd Average O.V.4671 O.V. X 1·3956=C.V¦5:860.V. × 1·3808=C.V.6449 (+)0-581 III. 1800,1804 O.V.5-6273d Average O.V+452 O.V. X 1.3534C.V. 7·615|O.V. × 1·4133—C.V.|6·264|(——) 1·351|2d&3d 2·735

It

*This alteration being adopted, it will be found, by proceeding as before, that in five years and three quarters, the price of the imports increased 15.841. per cent.; much more credible than a fall of 99031.; and that the price of exports increafed 8.891. per cent.; more credible than an advance in the fame time of 40 oil. per cent.

+ In note to p. 264 it is faid, that the current prices increase at the rate of 2.61. per cent. in five years; and the multiples of the official

It thus appears, that the annual receipt of 1,384,000l. which Ireland poffeffed in the firft period, was in the fecond converted into a payment of 1,351,000l.; this fum must also have been some that increased, in confequence of the union. The circumftance of Irish Commoners and Peers having now feats in a Parlament held in England, has augmented, in fome measure, the number of abfentees, and prolonged the absence of others fomething confiderable alfo muft be allowed for the charges of parties and evidences, who have now to attend in England on bills relating to Ireland: the contraband trade alfo on the balance operates as an augment to the imports at all times, and the late adverfe balance.

In the year 1803, the official values of the exports and imports were 6,087,000l. and 5,090,000l. From the very infpection of these totals, it is evident that the current value of the latter could not have exceeded that of the former by 917,300l. for, taking their current to bear nearly the fame proportion to their official values, as in the years 1800 and 1801, or those of the third period of the Table; that of the imports was 8,238,000l.; of the exports, 7,194,000l.; and the excefs of the former, 1,044,000l; and even this is apparently much undervalued, for the reafon given in the note to p. 266. From this it follows, that Mr. Foffer's balance, in page 75, muft be thus corrected. The remittances to abfentees two millions, added to the trading balance given above, makes the fum to be sent from Ireland 3, 44.000l.; but there was, in that year, tranfmitted to Ireland, on account of loans, lotteries, and public fervices, 1,459,590l.; and the balance againft Ireland was 1,584,410. In confequence of the error we have ftated above, Mr. F. computes, that a balance exifted in favour of Ireland of 376,8891. in this very year.

66

We could not but fmile, to fee how he exults on the difcovery of this balance. "No one fact", he says, nor any data of any kind, can be brought forward against it": to thofe who hold "an unfavourable exchange to be an infallible criterion of the ftate of the balance of debt", and thence affirm the exiftence of a balance againft Ireland, he replies, "that a more complete begging the queftion cannot be imagined." On

values of imports and exports having been in the fecond period 13956 and 13808 refpectively; thefe, divided by 1026, will be thofe of the first, and probably truer multiples; for the hird will be found by multiplying the fame numbers by the fame factors; they are taken, how ever, as determined before by computation; but, in the first mode, the balance of Ireland would appear still more adverse.

what

what Mr. F. has further faid against those who so reason, we give no judgment, except fo far as to mention, that if what he fays they urge be a fophifm, it is not of that kind which is called the petitio principii, as here charged. His own argument on this fubject, ftated by him to be taken from actual experience and accounts, he calls an argument a priori. This is certainly a mifnomer. There is a clafs of readers who are not impreffed with a very favourable opinion of a writer who ufes fcientific terms in a wrong fe.ffe. He adds two auxiliary arguments to prove the fame point, in which we think him equally inconclufive; the fecond is the more fpecious, but we cannot lengthen this Article by fhowing its fallacy.

We must give fome notice, however, to the fuperftructure which Mr. F. has raifed, on this balance of 376,000l. in favour of Ireland. In confequence of this he affumes, that the course of exchange which he calls real, is 11. per cent. in her favour; but the rate paid at the fame time he calls nominal; terms ill felected to exprefs his meaning, even if what he lays down be true in fubftance; for how a rate of exchange actually allowed fhould be properly called nominal, we cannot conjecture; especially to diftinguish it from another, which never is computed, and never even enters into the confideration of the parties, to which notwithstanding he gives the name of a real rate. He might, however, have efcaped this error in terms, by calling the latter natural and the former factitious: the firft rate being in favour of Ireland, he confiders as an affirmative quantity; the latter being against that country, as negative; whence, if they were both against it, they would be both negative. He employs this diftinction to prove, from circumftances taking place in the money market of Ireland, that the paper of the Bank of England itself is at a discount.

This discount, he fays, is equal to the fum of the premium paid for gold in Irish paper, added to the natural rate of exchange, deducting the factitious, or that obtaining in the market; and here taking this natural rate always affirmative, and l. per cent. he finds the difcount on English paper, at different times in eight months, to vary from 21. to 31. per cent.; but this fuppofed rule leads to a confequence in direct oppofition to the fact Mr. F. all along tries to establish: on his own principles, he makes a fuppofed favourable balance of 376,ocol. generate a natural rate of exchange of 11. per cent. increafing the discount; but there was an unfavourable balance, in the year confidered by him, of a million; the natural rate therefore will be negative, and following his proportion, fhould be taken at above gl. per cent.; all the discounts he has given, 3

therefore,