two are certain. First, that no Bulgarian government could remain in power for a week which declared war against Russia; and second, that it is unthinkable that they should ever fight on the side of the Turks.' The two states have been kept apart mainly by Austria.

In Roumania, with its population increased to nearly eleven millions by additions from Bukowina and Transylvania, all speaking the same language and nearly all belonging to the same faith, I foresee a country which will desire peace in order that it may develop its petroleum, corn, and other industries, and become self-supporting. In Serbia I see a larger state, including the populations of Bosnia and Herzegovina and great accessions from the Slavic population to the west of the Danube. Once Bulgaria and Serbia are on good terms, a great Slavic state will have been created which will tend constantly to increase from accessions from the Czechs of Bohemia, and which will probably work harmoniously with Roumania.

At the moment of closing this article I can say little of the attitude of Greece. The fact that the Queen of Greece is the sister of the Kaiser places the royal family in opposition to the great mass of the people. The great attack on the Dardanelles is still going on. It would have been greatly facilitated if Greece had joined the Allies. In return for her assistance she would have obtained Smyrna and the vilayet of Aidin, of which Smyrna is the most important city. Probably at least two thirds of the population are Greek. The city of Smyrna and the neighborhood have been Greek in race for three thousand years. Smyrna, as your readers will remember, is one of the places claimed as the birthplace of Homer himself. The Seven Churches of Asia Minor

familiar to all readers of the New

Testament-were composed largely of Greeks. Magna Graecia plays a large part in the history of Greek literature and art. The Greeks of the kingdom would dearly like to have it. Moreover, the persecution which the Greeks have suffered at the hands of the Moslem population during the last three years has been at once grievous and indefensible: houses and vineyards wantonly plundered and destroyed, people violated or driven from their homes. As punishment even for their crimes in that part of the Empire, the Turks ought to lose it. If Greece had been ready to lend her assistance to the Allies, Europe would have been glad to see her enter into possession. Her chance, however, is, I think, gone.

It is curious to observe that of the series of peoples occupying the Balkan Peninsula, the Roumanians on the east and the Greeks on the south, people of quite distinct races and language from each other, are each of them equally distinct from the two great Slavic peoples between them, the Bulgarians and the Serbians. The great difficulty before the Greeks in their future is that of population. Greece is herself a naturally poor country, possessing few natural resources, and the inducements held out to her inhabitants, especially by the United States, are a temptation to emigration. One of the coolest and ablest Greek ministers declared to me that this question of emigration was for him far and away the most serious with which his country had to deal. The people are industrious, make excellent sailors, and are enterprising. Lord Kitchener said of them, some four or five years ago, that wherever he had penetrated into the interior of Africa, he had always found Greek traders. Greece has already obtained possession of most of the islands of the Ægean, which she will be permitted to keep. But as those who have sailed among

them will remember, they are generally barren lands which are incapable of supporting a large population. They may still remain the homes of patriotic Greeks who have made their small fortunes in distant countries. Even under Turkish rule the island of Chios had become, a century ago, an island well peopled by Greeks who had thus returned from foreign countries. Their wealth, indeed, was the chief induce ment that led to the terrible massacre of 1825. One may well hope that under the government of their own people the Isles of Greece

Where grew the arts of war and peace,

Where Delos rose and Phoebus sprung may once more justify their ancient

renown.

Nor must it be forgotten that Greece has obtained within the past two years

a large accession of territory in Thessaly, Epirus, and Macedonia. But these again allow little room for expansion. Greece, however, with her glorious traditions and her innumerable classic associations, will always remain a country dear to all civilized peoples.

With Austria's ambitions defeated and the Turk expelled from Europe; with a contented Greece on one side of the peninsula and an enlarged Roumania on the other; and with a powerful Slav state, including Serbia and Bulgaria in alliance, holding the intervening lands, it appears to me that there will be good reason to hope that a peaceful and durable settlement of the Balkan Peninsula will be achieved. This hope will be increased if Russia wisely foregoes any intention of occupying Constantinople.

I

THE problem of Southeastern Europe may be best defined as the problem of those races which were at one time subject to the Turk. Those races include the Magyar, the Roumanian, the South Slav (Croat and Serb), the Bulgarian, the Greek, and the Albanian. A mistake has often been made in England and America in dividing up this single Southeastern problem into two water-tight compartments, one labeled 'Balkan States' and the other "Austria-Hungary.' But the two sets of intricate race-problems associated

with the words 'Balkans' and 'Austria-Hungary' respectively are in fact indissolubly connected, for this reason,

that the independent part of the South Slav race inhabiting Serbia and Montenegro is in the Balkan Peninsula, while the greater part of the South Slav race is found in Austria-Hungary. And similarly, while independent Roumania is one of the four Christian powers of the Balkan Peninsula, there are some three and a half million Roumanians in Hungary subject to Magyar rule. In fact the South Slav race and the Roumanian race are each cut in half, one half free in the Balkans, the other

half subject to the rule of the Emperor Francis Joseph. For this reason it is impossible to dissociate the Balkan question from the questions of southern Austria-Hungary.

The Balkans, Hungary, and Bosnia are the selfsame countries of Europe which were at one time submerged beneath the Turkish flood. The highwater mark of that flood was reached at the abortive siege of Vienna by the Turks in 1683. In the generation following that event the Turkish flood first began to subside, in the time of the great Austrian general Prince Eugene, best known to Englishmen as Marlborough's colleague at Blenheim. Largely by the victories of Eugene, the whole of Hungary was delivered from the Ottoman yoke, and modern Austria-Hungary (except Bosnia and Dalmatia) was then formed. It was formed at the expense of the Turk, but it was formed no less at the expense of the future freedom of the races that Austria then delivered. In delivering them from the Turk, the House of Hapsburg made them subject to its own dominion. On the other hand, the lands that now constitute independent Serbia and Roumania continued as parts of the Turkish Empire throughout the eighteenth century. At that price they purchased their present national existence.

During the eighteenth century the Turks usually held Belgrade, as the outpost of decivilization against Europe. And so things remained until, in the first years of the nineteenth century, the movement for the emancipation of the Balkan races began with the revolt of northwest Serbia under the hero Kara George. A dozen years later, in the time of Byron, the Greeks imitated the Serbians; and in yet another generation, in the time of Gladstone and Disraeli, the Bulgarians followed suit. Finally, in 1912, the Turks were

driven into a very small corner of Europe by a combination of Bulgarian, Serbian, and Greek. The Roumanians, who had never been so completely enslaved by the Turks as the Balkan peoples south of the Danube, were throughout the nineteenth century consolidating the independence and prosperity of modern Roumania. This work was carried to success by the good King Carol, who died a few months ago.

This nineteenth-century work of the liberation of the Balkans from Turkey differs in character from Prince Eugene's liberation of Hungary. In the first place, the nineteenth century was the era of nationality, ushered in by the French Revolution and the wars of Napoleon. French ideas of liberty profoundly affected the races subject to the Turk. Hence in the nineteenth century we find the Balkan peoples working out their own liberation and forming independent states on the basis of nationality and democracy,— Roumania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece. This is a much more complete work of liberation than the work which Prince Eugene had accomplished under the ancien régime, of substituting the Austrian for the Turkish rule in Hungary.

We must also remark another difference between the earlier and the later expulsions of the Turk. Austria had been the instrument of the earlier expulsion; but during the whole nineteenth century Russia was the leader of the liberationist movement. England sometimes went against the Turk, under Byron and Gladstone, sometimes for him, under Palmerston and Disraeli. But Russia has for a hundred years been the steady friend of liberation in the Turkish Empire, and has fought at least three wars in that interest. We have to recognize frankly, as Bright and Gladstone recognized, as Palmerston and Disraeli failed to recognize, that, although Russia is a

despotism at home, she has been more ready to engage in wars of liberation abroad than any other country in Europe or America. Roumania, Serbia, Greece, and Bulgaria are independent democracies, and they owe their freedom, first to their own efforts, and secondly to Russia. Hitherto Russia has got nothing in return for all these efforts except Bessarabia -a doubtful boon. She has not even got access to warm water and the world's oceans through the closed Dardanelles. In Sofia (Bulgaria's noble city, which thirty years ago was a dirty Turkish village) there stands in the grand square before the Parliament house the equestrian statue of the Czar Liberator, the Russian despot who freed Bulgaria in the war of 1877.

And what was Austria's rôle during these nineteenth-century wars of liberation? Her rôle was to remain neutral as between Turk and Christian, and to carry off as much as she could in the scramble. When Bosnia, an entirely Serb province, bravely revolted against the Turk, Austria took Bosnia for herself, by occupation, in 1878, followed by a long war against the Serb inhabitants, and by formal annexation in 1908. She thus increased the number of South Slavs in her dominions to nearly seven millions, and so compensated herself for the Italian possessions which she had recently lost.

Outside the borders of Austria-Hungary lie the two independent South Slav states, Montenegro and Serbia. Their very proximity to the oppressed South Slavs of Bosnia naturally causes friction with the Austro-Hungarian oppressor. Unfortunately, the Serbians of independent Serbia have not only this standing quarrel with Austria, but a standing quarrel with Bulgaria also. For since the war of 1913 Serbia holds territory down south which the Bul

-

garians regard as rightly belonging to themselves, the vexed region of northern Macedonia, including the Vardar Valley and coveted Monastir. The possession of Monastir and the Vardar Valley is a more difficult question than either Serbian or Bulgarian sympathizers are wont to admit. Macedonia is a mixture of races, - Greek, Turk, Albanian, Vlach, Bulgar, Serb, and Macedonian Slav. The Macedonian Slavs are the most important race, akin to both Serbian and Bulgarian but not identical with either. But in the generation prior to 1912 Bulgaria was stronger in Macedonia than Serbia, and the Bulgarian claim is strong.

On the other hand, the Serbian standpoint in regard to Macedonia is clear. The Vardar Valley and railway, terminating in friendly Greek territory at Salonika, is Serbia's only connection with the rest of the world. She cannot part with it until she has got some other exit for her commerce not dominated by her enemy Austria, who blocks all her routes to the north and denies her expansion to the Adriatic. In the present war, if it were not for the supplies which Serbia has got up the Vardar Valley from Western Europe (by way of Salonika), she would months ago have been conquered by Austria. And in times of peace the Vardar line is equally vital to her commerce and connection with the world. Austria blocks her to north and west and drives her to seek an exit to the south. In 1913, Austria threatened us all with a European war rather than let Serbia get an outlet on the Adriatic. Austria won her point then, but we have got the European war after all. Because Serbia was not allowed to get out to the Adriatic after the Turkish war, she had to cling to Macedonia and the Greek connection as her only other outlet to the sea. At the same time, Austria's attitude encouraged King Ferdinand

of Bulgaria to attack Serbia and Greece, instead of going to arbitration. The consequence was the fatal war of 1913 between the Christian allies, a triumph for Austrian diplomacy. That war prevented and still prevents a Balkan league against Austria.

Let us be fair to these Balkan states. If they fought savage wars against each other, and if they now fail to agree, the issues are real and vital, and difficult beyond the comprehension of those who have not studied them closely. The Macedonian problem presented real difficulties to any peaceful solution. These difficulties, greatly aggravated by the policy of Austria, caused the Second Balkan War. It was a wicked war, but there was far more reason for it than there is for the present war between the great powers. The great powers might have prevented the Second Balkan War, but instead of that Austria did her best to bring it about by denying Serbia access to the sea except by way of Macedonia and Salonika. Finally, when Serbia had disappointed Austria by emerging victorious over Bulgaria, Austria proposed to Italy to make an unprovoked attack upon Serbia, in August, 1913, nearly a year before the Sarajevo murders. Italy refused. This significant fact of secret diplomacy was recently revealed in the Italian Chamber by Signor Giolitti himself, to whom the proposal was made.

Why is Austria-Hungary so jealous of Serbia? Because she is breaking down the South Slav races within her own borders, and therefore an independent South Slav state must either be her vassal or her deadly foe. Serbia stands toward Austria in the same relation that little Piedmont once stood to her in Italy.

Again, let us be just to these Balkan races. While they were under the Turk we idealized them as Christian mar

tyrs, and when they threw off that yoke we were surprised to find that after five hundred years of crushing barbarian rule they were not more perfect than ourselves. It is not the only case in history of an enslaved race being over-idealized until it had been set free, and then being unreasonably abused for not coming up to impossible expectations.

There is no doubt that the Second Balkan War caused a great revulsion of feeling throughout the world against Serbian, Greek, and Bulgarian. This was much enhanced when Mr. Carnegie's Commission published its Report on the Causes and Conduct of the Second Balkan War. I do not think that report was the last word on the causes of the war, but it established beyond question the fact that atrocities had been committed in its conduct. But those atrocities by Serbians, Bulgarians, and Greeks in 1913 have now to be set side by side with the atrocities committed by the Austro-Hungarian troops in Serbia, near Shabatz and Losnitza, in the middle days of August, 1914. The Austro-Hungarian troops then and there murdered two to three thousand civilians, burning many women and children alive, and committing the most ghoulish outrages on many others. I have visited the scenes of these events, and I have the proofs and details under my hand. So far as I was able to ascertain, the Serbians have committed no reprisals. Their 60,000 Austrian prisoners in Serbia have no stories of such reprisals; they have no complaints to make, and in the hospitals the Austrian wounded are given absolute equality of treatment with

1 First-hand evidence has been given to the world in the article by Dr. Reiss of Lausanne University in the Revue de Paris, April 1, 1915, as well as in the Serbian government report, drawn up on evidence taken by Dr. Jules Schmidt of Switzerland and Dr. Arius Van Tienhoven of The Hague, Holland. THE AUTHOR.