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the world's dairying. Finland, the furthest developed of the group, before the war was exporting 26,000,000 pounds of butter annually. Butter from the Baltic States is now appearing on the British markets as a reminder of the pre-war Russian sources. Farmers of these countries look forward to turning to intensive dairy farming with feed imported from Russia and are closely studying the famous methods of farmers in Denmark.
From the point of view of the United States, this recent farreaching change in seasonal supply and price serves to raise into greater prominence the whole economic question as to the possibility, that, in the course of future developments, mutually advantageous seasonal trade in fresh butter may assume such proportions as to replace, to some degree, the system of seasonal storage that grows out of a local or national economy.
This shortage of supply in Great Britain is now almost simultaneous with the movement into cold storage in the United States. Will it be found profitable to dealers in the United States to sell in the British market during its summer strength just as it has been to buy and hold for the next winter's high prices at home?
Already the season of shortage is anticipated each year in the British markets, and each summer since the shortage appeared there has been some flurry in the American markets, even though the quantities actually shipped thus far have been comparatively small.
If the American exporter could thus sell fresh butter in a market that puts a premium on it because it is fresh, would he do as well to store it for the seasonal rise in domestic prices when he knows there will be a certain amount of deterioration in quality? The best grades of butter are the ones that best stand storage, just as they would best encourage foreign demand.
Butter that has been in cold storage 30 days or more is sold in the United States as “held butter.” During the past seven years held Creamery Extras sold in New York at prices averaging approximately 4 cents per pound lower than prevailing prices for the same grade of fresh butter. There is certainly involved in this situation the possibility that the relative profitableness of winter and summer dairying will be affected. The question is at least raised for consideration as to whether winter dairying is to be encouraged in each country or whether a leveling of prices throughout the year is to be the answer to such a proposal.
An exchange of butter is all that is here suggested, for it is not assumed that the United States is to develop into a surplus butterproducing country. In fact, unless economic pressure causes the United States to sell most of its best dairy products abroad rather than what is left after the home trade has bought the best, we need not look forward to a high place in the rank of exporting nations. So long as we are able to consume all of our best at home, the home market may also attract supplies of high grade butter from other countries. Such a tendency would result in the United States importing butter and cheese on a larger scale than they are exported.
Too much time, however, must not be given to the discussion of the industry in the United States however closely it is felt that our industry is tied up with that in other parts of the world. Certain outstanding developments within some of the individual countries that are influencing international trade, and thereby the dairy interests of other countries, must be touched upon, if only very briefly.
Russia, as we know, was recently the second largest exporter, with a pre-war export of 150,000,000 pounds annually, half of which went to the United Kingdom. Since the war, in attempting to answer the question as to when Russia will come back into the world's butter market, little could be said, or can yet be said, with certainty. Soviet statistical sources indicate, however, that the actual decrease from the pre-war total number of cattle in Russia, including Siberia, has not resulted in a proportionate decrease in the number of cows. This can be accounted for, of course, by the fact that the cow afforded food resources for immediate consumption, and not for production in the future only. Siberian butter is just now again making its appearance in small quantities in the London markets.
Offsetting Russia, in a sense, is Germany, which in pre-war years was the second largest importer of butter, with an annual importation of 111,000,000 pounds. Germany is now buying abroad negligible quantities of butter and is using various substitutes for butterfat—first, other animal fat; then, still cheaper vegetable fat. That country continues to import cheese, for which there is not the same opportunity for substitution, but Germany will be out of the foreign butter market, for how long we can not know. Increasing home production in Germany may be expected under present conditions. In 1922, production of butter in Germany was 66 per cent of pre-war volume. There is now a tendency in that country, as in Russia, to retain milk cows on farms, and the feed supply is reported as increasing
New Zealand, the new star in the dairy firmament, is now seen by some as of the first magnitude. Even to observers with a different point of view, it is now recognized as of no less than second magnitude. Its ascent has been spectacular. Twenty years ago the surplus of dairy products from that little island was negligible. Now it is by far the greatest single source of supply for the United Kingdom, and, next to Denmark, New Zealand is now the largest exporter of dairy products in the world. Its resources make it primarily a dairy section, and its population is small and principally agricultural. Although the circumstances of the war period gave great impetus to New Zealand's production of dairy products for export, this development is certainly permanent. This year will not show any such increase, to be sure, as the last season displayed. The director of the dairy division in Wellington tells us that the dual factories in New Zealand will turn to cheese this year and that, given an ordinarily favorable season, cheese production will probably increase by 10 per cent and the butter output will equal that of įast year. The same authority estimates that the next 10 years may see a total increase in dairy products in New Zealand of 50 to 100 per cent.
Canada, like the United States, has passed through a period of much greater exportation than to-day, having reached its zenith some 20 years later than the United States. Canada was once, in fact, the principal exporter of cheddar cheese. Other speakers will tell you that exports of cheese from that country in 1903 and 1904 reached 233,000,000 pounds and exports of butter 34,000,000 pounds. The United States in the early eighties was exporting as high as 147,000,000 pounds of cheese and 39,000,000 pounds of butter. Later, in both countries the proportion for home consumption increased along with increasing production, and in Canada there is a heavy per capita consumption of butter, and oleomargarine will not be sold there after next March.
In the Netherlands, Government control and regulation of the entire dairy industry has made it difficult for us to judge statistically of its real condition. Its exports of cheese in 1922, amounting to nearly 144,000,000 pounds, or 110 per cent of its 1909–1913 volume, as you know, gave it first place as an exporter of cheese last year. The method of making comparisons of total exports of dairy products in terms of their whole milk equivalent tends to obscure, in the case of the Netherlands, the important place occupied in its trade by condensed and powdered skim milk, now very large, and principally with Great Britain. The Netherlands, in 1922, exported two-thirds as much butter as in 1909–1913, with rather important changes in destination.
Adjustments to a world economy are fast being recognized as necessary on the part of the dairy industry in the various countries. The dual-factory systems, found especially in the Netherlands and New Zealand, can make either butter or cheese, depending at any time upon the relative strength of the foreign butter and cheese markets. Farsighted exporters, the Danes, the Swiss, and the Dutch, have made contacts with alternative markets, and newer channels of trade have been kept open at considerable effort, for they have discovered that contingencies arise that necessitate important changes in their trade. Certain governments are even assuming control or regulation of the exportation of dairy products in the interest of the whole industry. It may be confidently expected that such steps toward orderly marketing on an international scale will be carried further in the future. That the gathering and disseminating of market news of world-wide scope is essential to efficient business is being recognized by governmental agencies and private firms. The excellent reviews by Mr. Ruddick, the Canadian dairy commissioner, and W. Weddel & Co., of London, are worthy of special mention. In the matter of general current conditions the Swiss Peasants' Union has attempted valuable quarterly reports. Especially the International Institute of Agriculture at Rome is to be congratulated upon its efforts to promote the securing and dissemination of more adequate statistical information on dairying throughout the world.
We have been surveying the world's dairy, industry as developments in any one country influence and are in turn influenced by what is virtually one world market. A market such as now exists for dairy products, with sources of supply on every continent, normally makes for stability of supply and of price. În such a market too much emphasis can not be placed upon quality of products and efficiency in production and marketing; Milk as the raw material of dairy products is, of course, essentially as good in one country as in another. Competition in quality resolves itself into a question of methods of manufacturing and marketing. In the degree that economic pressure is brought to bear upon the dairymen of any country in the matter of marketing their produce there must be well-informed adaptation of production to existing demand in the matter of quantity and of quality. But demand is not fixed. In the highly competitive market of the future with a tendency toward standardized high quality with stabilized low price, consumptive demand may be immeasurably increased before the saturation point is reached.
Chairman LARSON. This completes the regular program, but we have several important announcements to make.
The first one is about the program for the afternoon. As you know, we have all been invited to meet the President of the United States at the White House this afternoon. It is necessary that the meeting adjourn promptly at 3.55, so that we will all be over at the White House and in line by 4.15. We will enter at the east side of the White House, and it is requested that you will all wear your badges. This includes the women, who should wear their badges also.
If we are to carry out this afternoon the splendid program that is listed it will be necessary to start promptly at 1.30. The chairman for this afternoon has told me that if the first speaker is here at 1.30—and he surely will be—the program will go ahead whether there is anyone else here or not. [Applause.]
The people of New York City have cooperated in a splendid way in entertaining and helping our delegates to this congress.
The chairman of the Milk Conference Board of New York City has been of splendid assistance in getting the foreigners taken care of as they have come into the country through that port. They are wanting to do more, and they are announcing a special excursion throughout New York City that will be of interest to dairymen generally, A splendid program has been arranged for Monday, October 15, and Tuesday, October 16. This committee asks that you register for this excursion at the headquarters, Hotel Onondaga, at Syracuse, as soon as you arrive there; an opportunity also will be given to register at the New York Milk Conference Board booth No. 16 at the Dairy Show.
I am going to call on Dean Mann for just a few words telling you of the plans for entertaining you and welcoming you to the dedication at Ithaca.
Dean Mann. Mr. Chairman, ladies, and gentlemen : The general announcements of the congress have indicated that in connection with one of the excursions the delegates and their friends will be taken on a tour
of inspection of certain of the important dairy plants of New York State, visiting the excellent State experiment station at Geneva, and arriving at Ithaca, the seat of Cornell University, late in the afternoon of Friday, October 12.
You will be entertained at dinner by the university, and that will be followed by a reception in the new dairy building, held there in order that you may have opportunity to inspect the building during ihe evening of your arrival. The formal dedication will then take place on the forenoon of Saturday, October 13, and it will be participated in by certain representaives of our State government, officials of the university, a representative of this congress, and the main dedicatory address will be given by one of our eminent dairy scientists in America, Dean H. L. Russell, of the University of Wisconsin.
Following that, there will be a luncheon, and in the afternoon opportunity will be given to attend a football game between Cornell University and Williams College. You will recall that Williams College has been the seat of the Institute of Politics during recent years.
Fast trains going from Ithaca will make comfortable connections for Washington or New York or Boston or Buffalo and the west, following the formal exercises.
We have extended a general invitation to all persons who are interested. A formal invitation is not necessary. At the same time we have particularly desired to place a formal invitation in the hands of every one of the foreign delegates attending this congress. Due to the inability to obtain addresses in advance and the fact that a number registered prior to the formal opening of the conference yesterday, not all of the foreign delegates have received these invitations. They are available at the information desk in the Hotel Willard. They contain, in addition to the mere invitation itself, a statement of the program and a card asking for certain information which it is quite important that the institution shall have in the completion of its arrangements and also for the convenience of the delegates who may attend.
I would earnestly urge those of the foreign delegates who have not received these invitations to call for them at the desk at the Hotel Willard and then return the cards inclosed promptly.
I may say that our invitation is an exceedingly cordial one to all. We believe that this dairy plant which has been studied with great care with reference to its arrangement and its equipment and facilities, not only for many of the practical forms of dairy instruction but for a wide range of scientific work, will be of interest to you, and we shall be honored and pleased by your attendance. [Applause.] Chairman Larson. The meeting is now adjourned. (The meeting adjourned at 12.30 p. m.)