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There is still another view that may be of interest, and that is the proportion of imports into the United Kingdom of butter and cheese which are of foreign as compared with that of British origin. In 1903 only 12 per cent of the butter came from British dominions, while 88 per cent was of foreign origin. In 1914 British countries supplied 20 per cent, and 80 per cent came from foreign countries. In 1923 we find that 44 per cent was of British origin and only 56 per cent was foreign. In the case of cheese 30 per cent was foreign and 70 per cent Britsh in 1903. In 1914 the supplies of foreign origin
dropped to 19 per cent of the total. In 1923 only 13 per cent was - foreign, while 87 per cent was British. (See Table IV.) TABLE IV.-Imports of butter and cheese into United Kingdom from foreign as
compared with British countries.
As a result of the war some of the streams which make up the international trade in dairy products have been diminished, if not wholly dried up, while others have been greatly increased, and still others have been diverted into new channels. The industry suffered by actual loss of cattle and through the difficulty, if not impossibility, of securing sufficient supplies of concentrates for feeding in many European countries. Outside of Europe, however, the high prices generally stimulated production.
In New Zealand the rapid natural increase was accelerated very considerably, and there is no question as to the present volume of production and exports being maintained and further increased. The manufacture of butter evidently received a big impetus from the war demand in the Argentine, as the imports from that country into the United Kingdom were increased from 5,281,920 pounds in 1914 to 37,679,040 pounds in 1922. It remains to be seen to what extent this increase from the Argentine will be continued.
An instance of the diversion of trade since the war is to be seen in the case of Holland, who now finds her principal markets in Belgium, France, and Spain, rather than in Germany, Austria, and the United Kingdom. The vagaries of the exchange market have also influenced the direction and volume of the streams of dairy produce to some extent.
I do not pretend to say when we may expect the international market for butter and cheese to reach the same state of equilibrium that it had before the war. One thing is certain, that the Southern Hemisphere will play a much bigger part in the international trade in the future than it has in the past.
In New Zealand the climatic conditions are on the whole favorable only to pastoral industry. The rainfall is abundant, and with only slight frosts at any time of the year the cattle run on pasture the year round without stabling. Cattle raising for the frozen-meat industry has become unprofitable in that country, and sheep farming is checked by the high price of land. Dairying seems to be the natural and almost the only line open for further agricultural development. Well-informed New Zealanders expect to see an increase of 100 per cent in dairy exports in the next 10 years. New Zealand, in common with other dairying countries of the Southern Hemisphere, has a relatively small industrial population and therefore a small home market. The proportion of the total production available for export is comparatively large in all the countries of the Southern Hemisphere.
In parts of Australia considerable further development of the industry is expected, especially in the State of Queensland. With modern appliances, including refrigerating machines, a semitropical, or even a tropical, climate is no longer considered 'inimical to the growth of the dairying industry.
Even in such an unlikely place as the Fiji Islands the creamery industry has already been established. There are millions of acres in the two main islands alone that are capable of carrying very nearly one cow to the acre the year round. The average temperature in Fiji is about 82° F., with heavy rainfall. The growth of such tropical grasses as para, paspalum, mission, etc., would amaze a Temperate Zone farmer. Alfalfa may be cut 10 or 12 times a year. From personal knowledge of the country, I am satisfied that initiative and enterprise are all that are lacking for the building up of a successful industry on quite a large scale, but these are important, and I mention Fiji more as a possibility than a probability for the present.
Many parts of South Africa seem to offer good opportunities for dairying. Cheddar cheese from East Griqualand won first prize at the Royal Dairy Show in London last year.
There is every reason to believe that the exports of both butter and . cheese from New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, and possibly the Argentine will show important increases in the future, especially those from New Zealand.
Canada has for many years been an important factor in the international trade. The exports of butter reached the high point of 34,128,944 pounds in 1903, and those of cheese reached the maximum of 233,980,716 pounds in 1904.
In the years that followed the increase of population was greater than the increase of production, and shipments of both butter and cheese have decreased. For the fiscal year ending March 31 last, the exports were 114,548,900 pounds of cheese and 21,994,576 pounds of butter.
The exports of cheese from Canada will probably not show any large increase in the immediate future. The production of creamery butter has been steadily increasing in every province for some years, and larger exports of butter may be expected in the years to come. The dairying industry is well established in every Province of Canada, but outside the Provinces of Ontario and Quebec the production is only a fraction of what it may be in the future. There are vast areas well adapted for dairying in which the industry only awaits development. :
The dairy industry has been so fully developed throughout Scandinavia and in Holland, France, and northern Italy that any further
expansion of the industry is not likely to be very large. In Switzerland there has been a tendency of late years to divert milk forinerly used for cheese making to the raising of calves. The Swiss have found good markets abroad for young cows raised at high altitudes in the Alps.
The most encouraging feature of the outlook for the international trade in butter and cheese lies in the greatly increased consumption of milk and its products. Prohibition in some countries, and the advertising campaigns based on the newer knowledge of nutrition, have had a very important influence in increasing the consumption of dairy products. Few realize how much a very slight increase in the per capita consumption affects the total supply and demand.
A calculation based on the recently published figures of the total production of milk in these United States shows that if the home consumption of milk and its products was increased by only 1 per cent it would mean the equivalent of 100,000,000 pounds of cheese, or nearly 50,000,000 pounds of butter a year.
The possibilities of increased markets through greater consumption are enormous, and what applies in the United States will apply in other countries according to population and per capita consumption. A more widespread knowledge as to the value of milk and milk products in the diet, and a higher appreciation of milk as a food rather than as a beverage, will yet exert a very large influence on the quantity consumed.
If I were writing that to-day, instead of several weeks or months ago, I should have probably placed a little more emphasis on the importance of the Baltic States in the future. From information which has come to me recently, it appears evident that Finland, Latvia, Esthonia, and those other states around the Baltic are likely to increase their exports of butter and some cheese, to a very large extent in the near future. I heard a prediction from a good authority not very long ago that he thought these states (known now as the Baltic States) would probably export more dairy produce than the whole of Scandinavia in a very few years. I don't know whether that is correct or not, but I would place more emphasis on the importance of these countries than I have done in this paper if I were writing it to-day.
Chairman LARSON. Mr. Ruddick, we are pleased with the splendid analysis of the situation in trade and dairy products.
I am now pleased to present the chief of the Bureau of Animal Industry of the United States Department of Agriculture, who is well prepared to discuss the important subject of "International trade in dairy cattle.” Dr. J. R. Mohler. [Applause.]
INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN DAIRY CATTLE.
John R. MOHLER, A. M., V. M. D., D. Sc., chief, Bureau of Animal Industry,
United States Department of Agriculture.
Mr. Chairman, ladies and gentlemen of the congress: It is indeed a pleasure to address an audience of this kind, united as it is by one common interest. We are here to honor the dairy in
dustry of the world, to express our congratulations upon its achievements and our confidence in its future. I deeply appreciate the honor as well as the responsibility of having been chosen to bring before you this morning the message regarding the international trade in dairy cattle.
A discussion of international trade in dairy cattle is especially appropriate at an event like this where representatives of so many foreign countries have gathered. Most of you are familiar with the magnitude of the dairy industry in the United States. It is one of our great agricultural and commercial enterprises. Yet unlike most of our important industries, it is one that has been transplanted from abroad. Dairy farming in the United States is essentially the result of international trade. True, conditions have been favorable for dairy cattle and dairy manufacturing, but as we enumerate our leading breeds-Holstein, Jersey, Guernsey, Ayrshire, and Brown Swiss—we are reminded that the original stock was imported. It is rather interesting in this connection to note how this transplanted industry has grown, for it gives a conception of future possibilities that is hard to get in any
Roughly speaking, there are fully 500,000,000 cattle in the world, of which about 100,000,000 are milk cows. And of those 100,000,000, about 25,000,000 are in the United States. So far as I have been able to learn, this is the largest number for any country. Russia is credited with about 15,000,000 and India with about 10.000.000, including some buffaloes kept for milk. Germany is reported to have about 8,000,000 milk cows, France about 6,500,000, and other countries smaller numbers. The figures I have mentioned are only an approximate index to the number of dairy cows, because statistics are not gathered in a uniform way. Yet the evidence shows rather conclusively that the United States, by importing European breeds, has built up a dairy industry of great size.
It may appear unusual also that this country, which has only about one-sixteenth of the world's population, should have onefourth of the world's dairy cows, and stranger yet that it should have no exportable surplus of dairy products under these circumstances. But such is the case. At times we have exported 1 or 2 per cent of our dairy production, but this year the balance appears to have swung in the opposite direction. From present information imports may exceed exports for the calendar year 1923. Abundant consumption is the explanation. Thus you will see in what esteem we hold the dairy cow and her products.
EXCIIANGE OF KNOWLEDGE ON DAIRYING DESIRABLE.
The foregoing remarks, I trust, may help us to appreciate more fully the problems of international trade in dairy cattle. The health of dairy livestock is one problem-perhaps the chief one. There is no place for diseased cattle, or cattle exposed to contagious diseases, in international trade. Health problems deal also with possible infection from hay, straw, bedding, and animal products.
Another problem in international trade is that of giving and receiving information. As already pointed out, statistics of the dairy industry are not gathered in a uniform way in different countries. Such classification terms as “ dairy cows," "milk cows," and " cows kept for milk” are more or less synonymous, but we have been unable to get dependable information on the numbers of dairy bulls and dairy animals other than cows. Such stock appears to be included with beef cattle in some cases. If the international aspects of the dairy industry are to be dealt with intelligently, it certainly is desirable to know the extent of the industry in the countries concerned.
Another topic worthy of mention is the desirability of personal observation. I hope that everyone who is here temporarily from a foreign country will make the most of the opportunity to visit farm dairies and dairy manufacturing plants. We want you to see also that this country is entirely free from certain animal diseases, such as
uro-pneumonia and foot-and-mouth disease, that tuberculosis is being eradicated from thousands of herds, and that the cattle tick is gradually being eliminated from the States which formerly suffered from this pest. Cases have come to my attention in which well-informed persons could not conceive that foot-and-mouth disease was entirely absent in a country of this size, and that it was possible to eradicate cattle ticks from an area of 500,000 square miles. Anyone who has seen hundreds of young ticks crawling on a single blade of grass can easily be skeptical when told that such a pest has been eradicated from large areas, but I hope that you will see for yourselves that this has actually been accomplished.
MODERN CONDITIONS MAKE DISEASE CONTROL IMPERATIVE.
Probably in all progressive countries the majority of dairymen and stockmen understand the necessity for regulations to safeguard the livestock industry. Yet we must face the fact that a minority either is indifferent or is unconvinced that restrictions are necessary. Consequently public opinion is not a sufficient safeguard, and adequate legislation properly enforced is the only dependable means for accomplishing desired results. Cattle, sheep, and swine collected from wide areas are assembled in public stockyards and intermingled in ways most favorable for the spread of infection. The more extensive the movement of livestock, and especially through public markets, the greater the danger of spreading contagious animal diseases, with possibility of disaster to the industry in some localities. A country which in former times was practically safe from outside plagues is now in danger of having them brought in with commerce, and with improved facilities for the transportation and marketing of animals, diseases occurring to a small extent in limited areas of a country are liable to be spread through its territory.
Live animals are moved from one country to another for slaughter, for work purposes, for exhibition, and for breeding purposes. The latter class constitutes the greatest danger. Newly acquired breeding animals which are not free from disease may defeat the very purpose for which they were imported by infecting and destroying the herds into which they are introduced instead of improving them.